The odds of hitting quads on the flop are a minuscule 0.2% or 407 to 1. By the river it goes up slightly to 2.1% but the odds are still very much against you. When you do hit four-of-a-kind you’re generally going to be the winner.
- What Are The Odds Of Flopping 4 Of A Kind In Texas Holdem Rules
- What Are The Odds Of Flopping 4 Of A Kind In Texas Holdem Rules
- What Are The Odds Of Flopping 4 Of A Kind In Texas Holdem Tournament
- What Are The Odds Of Flopping 4 Of A Kind In Texas Holdem Tournaments
- What Are The Odds Of Flopping 4 Of A Kind In Texas Holdem Real Money
- What Are The Odds Of Flopping 4 Of A Kind In Texas Holdem Tournaments
Winning Texas holdem poker players have to have a solid understanding of odds and pot odds.
Many inexperienced players make the mistake of assuming odds and pot odds are the same thing. While the two things are related, they aren’t the same.
The first thing you’re going to learn is what odds and pot odds are, how to quickly calculate them, and how to use them to improve your results at the table. Then you’ll find an extensive list of examples so you can practice what you’ve learned.
- 1.10 Odds On the Flop in Texas Hold’em. 1.10.1 Outs; 1.10.2 Straight and Flush Draw Odds; 1.10.3 On the flop, when you have: 1.11 Odds of hitting a hand by the river from the flop. 1.11.1 On the flop, when you have: 1.12 All-in One-on-One in Texas Hold’em. 1.12.1 Preflop matchups when played to showdown: 1.13 Just-for-Fun Texas Hold’em odds.
- Texas Hold'em Starting Hands Odds If you can grasp a solid understanding of the strategy provided below, you will have a better understanding of the game than 90% of poker players. If you are better than 90% of poker players, you will be able to win money from Texas Hold'em.
It’s a good idea to bookmark this page so you can come back and go over the examples frequently. The more times you go over them the better your ability will be to make the correct decisions at the holdem table.
The best way to develop strong odds and pot odds calculating skills is to study this page and then use what you’ve learned in live Texas holdem play. You’ll make mistakes as you play, but every time you make one make a mental note or write it down.
Then study these situations after the game to see where you made a mistake and learn how to avoid making the same mistake in the future.
A mistake that many new Texas holdem players make is not learning about odds and pot odds because they’re afraid of the math or that it’s too hard. While both items do involve some math, it isn’t difficult once you understand it.
More importantly, the most common odds and pot odds situations happen frequently so you’ll quickly memorize the important situations and won’t have to calculate many hands while playing.
You’ll also learn a few quick tricks and tips that the pros know to help you make fast decisions in the middle of a hand.
Odds are a mathematical way of explaining how likely or unlikely something is to happen.
You can use odds in two different formats. The first one is a percentage and the second is a ratio. Some players find percentages easier to work with, but you need to learn how to consider Texas holdem odds as ratios. This is important because when you start using pot odds if your odds are already in ratios it saves a step. If you have the odds in percentages you have to either convert the pot to a percentage or convert the odds from a percentage to a ratio.
If this seems confusing, don’t panic. The rest of the page covers odds and pot odds using ratios so you’ll learn the best way possible.
Here’s an example of how you use odds in Texas holdem.
If you have pocket queens and have already seen the flop and it has no queens, what are the odds a queen will land on the turn?
To determine the correct odds you need to determine how many unseen cards remain in the deck. You’ve seen your two hole cards and the three board cards. So you’ve seen five out of 52 cards, leaving 47 unseen cards. You also know that there are two more queens.
This means that two of the remaining cards will give you another queen and 45 of them won’t.
This gives a ratio of 2 to 45 or 45 to 2, depending on how you want to list it. Usually the odds against number is listed first, so you’ll see 45 to 2 or 45:2.
In simpler terms, this means that on average, if you play this exact situation 47 time that you’ll get a queen twice and a card other than a queen 45 times.
If a queen doesn’t land on the turn, what are the odds of one landing on the river?
You’ve seen one more card so two cards are still queens and 44 aren’t.
Here’s another example.
If you have four to a flush after the flop, what are the odds the turn will make a flush for you?
In this situation you have 9 cards out of 47 unseen that will complete your flush. So 9 cards complete your flush and 38 don’t. This means 38 to 9 or 38:9.
If you don’t complete your flush on the turn the odds change to 37:9 on the river.
But what about the cards in your opponent’s hands and the ones that are already in the muck?
Don’t make the mistake of thinking that because your opponents have seen their cards that you don’t count them in your calculations. The only numbers that matter are the number of cards you’ve seen and the number of cards you haven’t seen.
Sometimes the card or some of the cards you need are in other player’s hands or in the muck, but it doesn’t matter. The cards you need are just as likely to be in the remaining cards to be dealt and in the long run they’ll be in any particular location an equal number of times based on the probabilities.
The way many players visualize this is by assigning each place in the deck of cards a number, 1 through 52. As the deck is ready to have the first card dealt the top card is number 1 and the second card is number 2 down to the bottom card being number 52.
As the cards are dealt, burned, folded, etc. more cards are used from the top of the deck. It doesn’t matter what happens to each card or if you see it or not.
In the long run each card has an equal chance to be number 1, number 36, number 52, or any other number. Over millions of hands each individual card will be in each of the 52 places the same number of times.
This means that if you need the ace of clubs to complete your hand it’s an unseen card and doesn’t matter where it’s located during the current stack. Over the long run it’ll be in each of the 52 positions an equal number of times, so all you can do is work with the seen and unseen cards.
Kincaid coach tours casino trips. You can also use odds to determine the likelihood of other things happening during a hand.
What are the odds that the first card you’re dealt is an ace?
You know the deck has 52 cards and four aces, so the odds of the first card you receive being an ace are 48:4. This can be reduced to 12:1. You reduce ratios by dividing the same number into both numbers. In this case you divide both 48 and 4 by 4.
Another way to look at this is 1 out of every 13 cards on average is an ace. This makes sense because each suit has 13 cards and one of them is an ace.
Ratios are important because you use them when determining pot odds. You’ll learn more about pot odds in the next section.
But if you want to know the odds of things like getting dealt pocket aces you need to use a different kind of probability.
Before teaching you about this type of probability you need to make sure you want to try to learn it. If you’re getting confused or worried about all of this math, skip to the pot odds section. It builds on what you’ve already learned and you don’t have to know anything about this next part in order to be a master Texas holdem player.
The main difference is you need to look at the possibilities of how many events out of how many possibilities instead of the positive verses the negative. This is easier to understand using an example.
As you’ve already seen when you determine a ratio or odds you compare the cards that can help you and the ones that can’t. When you determine the possibility of getting dealt pocket aces you need to use the number of cards that can help achieve this out of the total number of cards.
So the odds of getting an ace as the first card are 4 out of 52 and as your second card are 3 out of 51. After the first card there are only 51 remaining cards in the deck and only 3 remaining aces.
Here’s why this distinction is important. To get the actual chances of being dealt pocket aces you put 4 over 52, like a fraction, and 3 over 51 and multiply them.
This gives you the chances of being dealt pocket aces as 220 to 1.
When you multiply the fractions you get 12 over 2,652, which reduce to 1 over 221. This is then made back into a ratio like discussed above. 1 time you receive pocket aces and 220 times you don’t, so the odds are 220 to 1.
Once you understand how odds work, the next thing you must understand is how to determine how many outs you have in any situation where you need to understand your pot odds.
You combine your knowledge of odds with the number of outs and the amount in the pot and of the bet you’re facing to figure out your pot odds.
Your outs are the cards that improve your hand enough to win the pot. Rarely can you be 100% sure about every one of your outs, but in most situations you can make an educated guess.Example
If you have a king and a ten and the flop has an ace and a king, if one of your opponents bets the odds are they have an ace. This means you’re behind in the hand, but if you hit one of the other two kings or one of the remaining three tens on the turn or river you stand a good chance to win.
You can’t be certain either a king or ten will win the hand because your opponent may have a set of aces or two pair with aces and either kings or the other flop card. This isn’t likely but it does happen.
One of the most common situations concerning outs is when you have four to a flush on the flop. This leaves nine outs to complete the flush. Each suit has 13 cards and you have four of them, leaving nine outs.
But will each of the nine cards guarantee a win?
Rarely is anything guaranteed at the holdem table. If the board pairs and you hit your flush you can still lose to a full house. If you don’t have an ace high flush you might lose to a higher flush.
When you’re trying to determine how many outs you have, try to make a realistic guess on how many will actually win the hand.
You need to use everything that has happened in the hand so far, what you know about your opponents, and the range of hands your opponent is likely holding to make your best estimate.
This information is directly related to the level of competition you’re facing and the limits of the table.Example
When you’re playing at micro or low limits and your competition isn’t very good overall it’s likely that any flop that holds an ace has paired an ace in someone’s hand. Low limit players often play any ace. While better players and higher limit players also play hands with aces, they usually don’t play the ones with smaller side cards like you see at the lower levels.
When you’re trying to determine your number of outs you can adjust the number based on different factors. If you have 10 outs but think that 10% of the time your opponent will hold a better hand anyway you can adjust your outs to nine when using it for your pot odds calculation.
This can get quite complicated, but as you gain experience and get better at reducing the range of possible hands your opponent holds your outs determination will improve.
If you knew exactly what your opponent held you could determine your exact number of outs every time.
To complicate your outs computation further, the more opponents who remain in the hand the more difficult it can be to make an accurate outs guess.
If you’re in a hand with an ace and a seven and three other opponents and an ace lands on the flop do you have the best hand? If not how likely is it you can improve to win the hand?
In many games you need to be worried that one of your opponents also has an ace and her kicker is likely better than yours. You probably need to make two pair to have a chance to win, but what are the odds she’ll also hit two pair? One of your opponents may already have two pair or a set.
In a no limit game this hand is rarely profitable, because if you do hit two pair the only way you usually get enough action to make it possibly profitable is when another player has a better hand. It can be profitable in a few limit games, but usually a hand like this needs to be folded before the flop to keep from getting into an uncertain situation like the one I described.
It’s impossible to cover every situation you’ll run into concerning outs. Do the best you can to determine your real outs and learn to adjust your counts as you gain experience. You can use the examples of outs in the examples section below to practice and learn how to think about each situation.
Pot odds are what Texas holdem players use to determine if calling or folding is the correct course of action when facing a bet. They’re mostly used on the flop, turn, and river.
While it’s possible to consider pot odds before the flop, most players focus on their position and starting hand strength for most of their pre flop decisions. This is the correct way to play and more profitable than thinking about pre flop pot odds so this section deals almost entirely with post flop play.
Once you master every other aspect of pre flop play you can consider thinking about pot odds before the flop, but only rarely will it prove profitable.
Of course you need to learn how to correctly use pot odds in both limit and no limit play, but the easiest way for a beginner to start learning about them is with a simple limit game example. Considerations for limit and no limit play are covered in a section later on this page.Example
You’re playing in a $2 / $4 limit Texas holdem game and the blinds are $1 and $2. Two players before you call for $2 each, you call, and the small blind puts another dollar in the pot and the big blind checks. This leaves a total of $10 in the pot.
You have the ace of spades and eight of spades and the flop is the king of clubs, jack of spades, and six of spades. This gives you four to the nut flush, so you have nine outs out of 47 unseen cards. 38 cards won’t help and 9 will complete the flush for a ratio of 38:9 to complete the flush.
It’s also possible you already have the best hand, but this isn’t likely with four opponents. You may also win the hand if you hit one of the remaining aces.
This is a perfect example of one of the situations mentioned in the outs section above. Unless the board pairs, if you hit a flush you’re guaranteed to win the hand. Even if the board pairs, you’ll win most of the time. You’ll win some of the time when you hit an ace, but not all of the time.
In this situation the safest way to play is ignore everything except the flush draw at this point for your outs. The closest to true outs you probably have are 10. The 9 flush outs and an additional out for the times you win when an ace hits.
The problem is you don’t know when an ace helps you and when it simply costs you more money.
Let’ continue with the example using the 9 outs for the flush.
The small blind bets $2 into the pot, two players fold and one other player calls, leaving a total of $14 in the pot. You have to call the bet of $2 so the pot is offering odds of 14 to 2, or 7 to 1. This means if your odds of hitting your hand are better than 7 to 1 it’s the correct play mathematically to call.
Your odds are 38 to 9, or roughly 4.2 to 1. This means you have a much better chance to hit your flush than it costs you to call. You’ll still only hit the flush 1 out of every 5 times you’re in this situation, but the amount you win for the call of $2 offers 7 times the investment, making it clearly profitable in the long run.
What if the first player bet $2 and the other remaining player raised to $4?
This makes the total in the pot $16 and you have to call a bet of $4, giving you pot odds of 4 to 1. Your odds of hitting your hand are still 4.2 to 1, so now it shows a call may be slightly less than break even in the long run.
But don’t forget the player that made the original bet of $2. She’ll probably call the raise enough times to make it worth calling. If you know she’s going to call the pot is offering 18 to 4, or 4.5 to 1 pot odds.
One of the big problems with a hand like a flush draw is you rarely get a great deal of action after you hit your hand. Some hands are more concealed and offer the chance to win more when you hit your hand. This is covered in the implied odds section below.
So far we’ve only covered situations immediately following the flop. Once the turn card is dealt you have to do the same thing for the river to determine the best course of action using pot odds.
Of course you have both the turn and river to hit your outs, but when you determine your pot odds you should only consider the turn or try to correctly guess how much it’ll cost to play both the turn and river and the amount of the total pot including both bets and the bets of your opponents.
You can learn how to do this fairly accurately and it involves implied odds, but until you master pot odds and outs you should focus on each section of the hand by itself. Focus on becoming the best turn player possible, then the best river player possible before trying to combine the two.
What about the money you put in the pot before the flop?
In the example above you put $2 in the pot before the flop, so why don’t you factor it in your calculation? The truth is you’re using it in your calculations already, but it’s already in the pot so it’s not yours any more. The only way you get it back is by winning.
One of the fastest ways to learn to use pot odds is to memorize how many outs you have in certain situations. Here’s a list of common situations and how many outs they have.
- A flush draw has 9 outs.
- An open end straight draw has 8 outs.
- An inside straight draw has 4 outs.
- You have 6 outs to pair one of your hole cards unless they’re a pair.
- A pocket pair has 2 outs to hit a set.
- A set has 7 outs on the turn to hit quads or a full house and 10 on the river.
Another shortcut that many players find useful also involves the number of outs. Once you determine how many outs you have you can multiply it by two to get an idea of the percentage chance you have of hitting your hand on the turn. You can also multiply by two after the turn to get an idea of your chances on the river.
You can multiply by four to determine your chances on the turn and river combined.Example
If you have four to a flush on the flop you have roughly an 18% chance to hit your flush on the turn and a 36% chance on either the turn or river. Nine outs time two is 18 and times four is 36.
Notice that the statement was you could get a close idea or general idea. These are estimates, not exact numbers.
The actual percentage of hitting the flush on the turn is 19.1%, not 18% and the exact chance on the turn or river is 35%, not 36%.
You have to have at least 14 outs after the flop in order to be the favorite to hit your hand on the turn or river. With 14 outs the exact percentage is 51.2%
Here’s a chart with the percentages based on the number of your outs on the turn and on the turn and river and how these percentages relate to the odds.
|Outs||Turn||Odds||Turn and River||Odds|
|20||42.6%||1.4 to 1||67.5%||.48 to 1|
|19||40.4%||1.5 to 1||65%||.54 to 1|
|18||38.3%||1.6 to 1||62.4%||.6 to 1|
|17||36.2%||1.8 to 1||59.8%||.67 to 1|
|16||34%||1.9 to 1||57%||.75 to 1|
|15||31.9%||2.1 to 1||54.1%||.85 to 1|
|14||29.8%||2.2 to 1||51.2%||.95 to 1|
|13||27.7%||2.6 to 1||48.1%||1.1 to 1|
|12||25.5%||2.9 to 1||45%||1.2 to 1|
|11||23.4%||3.3 to 1||41.7%||1.4 to 1|
|10||21.3%||3.7 to 1||38.4%||1.6 to 1|
|9||19.1%||4.2 to 1||35%||1.9 to 1|
|8||17%||4.9 to 1||31.5%||2.2 to 1|
|7||14.9%||5.7 to 1||37.8%||2.6 to 1|
|6||12.8%||6.8 to 1||24.1%||3.2 to 1|
|5||10.6%||8.4 to 1||20.3%||3.9 to 1|
|4||8.5%||10.8 to 1||16.5%||5.1 to 1|
|3||6.4%||14.7 to 1||12.5%||7 to 1|
|2||4.3%||22.5 to 1||8.4%||10.9 to 1|
|1||2.1%||46 to 1||4.3%||22.3 to 1|
It’s important to understand how to use this information in relation to pot odds like you learned above.
The most common example is if you face an all in bet on the flop. If you ignore everything else like the size of the pot, if you have 14 or more outs you’re favored to win the hand.
If the pot has $200 in it before your opponent bets and the all in bet is $100, you’re receiving 3 to 1 pot odds so if you have seven or more outs you need to call.
You can print this table and keep it with you as you play online. As you look up different situations you’ll start remembering the outs and odds and soon you won’t need to use the sheet to make the best plays.
Limit vs No Limit Play
Though many players act like there’s a huge difference between limit and no limit play when it comes to pot odds, the truth is everything is the same.
The only difference is the size of the bets, but that doesn’t change the way you determine the outs, odds, and pot odds. It only changes the amount in the pot and the amount of the possible bets.
Some situations are so close that it’s hard to tell if calling or folding is the correct play based on the pot odds. When this happens it’s often helpful to consider the possibilities of the size of the pot during the rest of the hand. You’ll learn more about this in the next section.
Implied odds are the odds of winning more than the current bet when you hit your hand.
When you hit your hand on the turn you have additional opportunities to win money from your opponent. If you miss your hand on the river you can fold, but you might be able to win an additional bet from your opponent when you hit your hand.
When you start trying to figure out implied odds you need to be able to guess how likely it is that your opponent will make or call additional bets when you hit your hand.
The more disguised your hand is the more likely your opponent will pay you off.
When you’re drawing to a flush it’s usually obvious to your opponent that you may have completed it because three cards of the same suit are on the board. But when you hit a straight or a set it’s usually more difficult for your opponent to see what you hit.
If your opponent understands pot odds the good news is by the time you hit your flush the pot will be large enough that she should call most bets. But when you hit a straight or other hidden hand you’ll be able to get your opponent to call additional bets most of the time.
In limit play most players call a single bet on the river even if they’re sure they’re beat. It’s a little more complicated in no limit. The key is to learn how to size your bets to make your opponent call when you hit your hand and be able to avoid the same thing happening to you when you miss your draw.
Here’s an example.
You have a suited ace and queen, paired the queen on a king high flop, and missed the flush draw on the river. The pot has $1,000 in it and you’ve been calling an aggressive player the entire hand. You only have a pair of queens and the odds are strongly against you having the best hand.
How big of a bet will you call on the river?
Believe it or not, this question has a mathematical answer, but you have to guess how often you’ll have the best hand.
Roughly, if you think you have a 10% chance of winning the hand you’d call a $100 bet.
The way you determine the correct amount based on your chances of winning is by putting yourself in the situation 100 times.
- In the above example it costs $10,000 to call the $100 bet 100 times.
- If you win 10% of the time you win 10 times and lose 90 times.
- The 10 times you win you win $12,000 for a profit of $2,000.
Realize that the $12,000 includes the money you use to call the bet. The reason you have to include it is because you use it to determine the $10,000 needed to call. The actual percentage you need to win is only 9% of the time to show a profit, but using 10% is much easier to work with in your head.
You only have to win 25% of the time to call a $500 bet to break even. You can figure this the same way as you did the 10% above, but let’s look at it a different way. The $500 bet makes the pot $1,500 and you have to call $500. This makes the pot odds 3 to 1 so you only need to win 1 out of every 4 times, or 25%, to break even.
The truth is that when you get enough experience you won’t really use the math as much as your instinct and what you know about your opponent. You have to call occasionally in this situation to show you can’t be pushed around, but you can’t afford to call a very big wager and be wrong very often either.
The easiest way to learn about odds, outs, and pot odds for most people is to read how to determine them and then practice them. This section is filled with examples split into three areas.
You’ll find real life examples of odds, outs, and pot odds. Each one has a situation for you to practice what you’ve just learned.
The situations are listed first, and then the solutions are included below so you won’t see the answers until you scroll down the page.
OddsYour first card is an ace, what are the odds your second card will be an ace?
The deck has 51 cards remaining and 3 of them are aces, so 3 out of 51 will be an ace. As a ration, 3 cards help you and 48 don’t.
Your first card is the ace of spades. What are the odds your second card will be a spade?
Of the remaining 51 cards, 12 are spades so 12 out of 51 will be a spade. As a ration 12 help you and 39 don’t.
You have a set of eights after the flop. What are the odds the turn will be the last eight?
You have 47 unseen cards and only 1 eight so 1 out of 47 will be the last eight. As a ratio 1 card will help and 46 won’t.
You have a set of eights after the turn. What are the odds the river will be the last eight?
Now there are only 46 unseen cards so 1 out of 46 will help and as a ratio 1 will help and 46 won’t.
Now there are only 46 unseen cards so 1 out of 46 will help and as a ratio 1 will help and 46 won’t.
With 47 unseen cards, you can pair either of the two community cards that aren’t part of your set, so you have 6 outs. 6 out of 47 will make a full house so as a ratio you have 6 that help and 41 that don’t.
You have a set of eights after the turn. What are the odds the river will make a full house?
Now you have 46 unseen cards but have picked up another card to pair. So you have 9 outs out of 46 cards. As a ratio you have 9 cards that complete a full house and 37 that don’t. Remember that one of the cards that don’t make a full house gives you quads, so you actually have 10 outs instead of 9.
OutsYou have a set on the flop. How many outs do you have to improve to a full house or quads?
You have one out to improve to quads. A set dictates that you have a pocket pair and one of the board cards matches it. So the flop also contains two unpaired cards, so you have an additional six outs from these. If they were paired on the board you’d already have a full house. If you don’t hit a full house on the turn your outs improve by three for the river. The turn card can also pair on the river for a full house. So you have seven outs on the turn and 10 on the river.
You have four to a flush on the flop. How many outs do you have to complete your flush?
Four to a flush leaves nine more cards of the needed suit. Each suit has 13 cards, minus the four in your hand and on the board.
You have four to a flush and two over cards to the flop. How many outs do you have assuming if you pair one of your cards you’ll win?
In addition to the nine outs from the flush, each of your over cards has three more cards that can match them. This provides a total of 15 outs.
You have an open end straight draw. How many outs do you have?
An open end straight draw has two cards that can complete the straight and each card has four in the deck. This gives a total of eight outs.
You have an open end straight draw and one over card. How many outs do you have assuming your over card will win if you pair it?
The single over card adds three more outs to the open end straight draw so the total number of outs is 11.
You have an inside straight draw. How many outs do you have?
An inside straight draw only has one card that can complete the straight so you have four outs.
You have two over cards. How many outs do you have if pairing either one wins?
Each over car has three remaining cards in the deck, so a total of six outs remain.
You have a flush on the flop. How many outs does your opponent have if they currently have two pair?
Your opponent has to make a full house in order to beat your flush. With two pair she has two remaining cards for each of her pairs. This makes a total of four outs.
You have an open end straight draw and four to a flush. How many outs do you have?
A flush draw has nine outs and an open end straight draw has eight outs, but a few of the outs may overlap. For example, if you have the eight and nine of hearts and the board has the seven of hearts, six of diamonds, and three of hearts, any of the remaining hearts will give you a flush and any of the tens or fives will complete your straight, But you’ve already counted the ten of hearts and the five of hearts in your nine outs so you only have six additional open end straight outs instead of eight. This is a total of 15 outs.
You have two over cards, four to a flush, and an open end straight draw. How many outs do you have? Example: You have king and queen of clubs and the board is jack of clubs, ten of diamonds, and seven of clubs.
You just determined how many outs a flush draw and open end straight draw include, so you just need to add the two over cards. Each of them has three remaining cards, so a total of 21 outs. Take a quick look at the chart included above. With 21 outs you’re a strong favorite to win the hand, even if you’re currently behind. Of course it’s possible not all of your 21 outs are actually good.
Pot OddsThe pot has $100 in it after the flop including a bet of $20. You’re the only other player and you have a flush draw. Should you call based on your pot odds?
A flush draw has 9 outs so the odds are 4.2 to 1. The pot is offering 5 to 1 odds. % to 1 is better than 4.2 to 1 so you should call.
What Are The Odds Of Flopping 4 Of A Kind In Texas Holdem Rules
The pot has $40 in it after the flop including a bet of $20. You’re the only player left to act and you have a flush draw. Should you call?
The flush draw has 4.2 to 1 odds and the pot is only offering 2 to 1. You should fold because 2 to 1 is lower than 4.2 to 1. This means in the long run you’ll lose money by calling.
You have an open ended straight draw and four to a flush on the flop, you’re facing a bet of $100 and the pot size is $400. What should you do?
You have 15 outs so the odds are 2.13 to 1 to complete one of your draws on the turn, but on the turn and river the odds are .85 to 1. This means you’re actually a favorite to win the hand so it doesn’t matter what the pot odds are, you should raise. The pot odds are 4 to 1.
You have a set on the flop but the flop is all the same suit and it looks like one of your two remaining opponents may have a flush. The pot size is $320 including a bet and call of $40 each, so you’re the last to act on the round. What should you do?
You only have 6 outs to make a full house on the flop so the odds are 6.8 to 1 and the pot is offering 8 to 1. You should call. Even if the odds were as low as 6 to 1 you should consider calling because even if the turn doesn’t complete your full house the odds improve to 4.1 to 1 on the river. This is a fine line and represents a answer that shows why pot odds are so important. Knowing what happens on the next round as far as odds, outs, and pot odds, gives you the ability to make the correct play on close answers.
The river was just dealt, the pot has $1,000 in it including a bet of $200 and you have two pair. You’re not sure what your opponent has. How often do you need to have the winning hand to make a call correct?
If you’re in this answer 100 times it costs a total of $20,000 and when you win you receive $1,200 including your call. You only have to win 17 times out of 100, or 17% of the time, in order to show a long term profit. This means the correct play is to call, because the odds of you not being good at least 17% of the time is small.
Some Final Words
No matter how hard it seems at first, learning how to use odds, pot odds, and outs is worth it in the long run. If you’re having trouble keeping everything straight, go over the qui part of this page every day and print the chart and start using it.
Once you learn how to use the things you’ve learned on this page at the Texas holdem tables you’ll quickly see an improvement in your profitability.
The main underpinning of poker is math – it is essential. For every decision you make, while factors such as psychology have a part to play, math is the key element.
In this lesson we’re going to give an overview of probability and how it relates to poker. This will include the probability of being dealt certain hands and how often they’re likely to win. We’ll also cover how to calculating your odds and outs, in addition to introducing you to the concept of pot odds. And finally we’ll take a look at how an understanding of the math will help you to remain emotional stable at the poker table and why you should focus on decisions, not results.
What is Probability?
Probability is the branch of mathematics that deals with the likelihood that one outcome or another will occur. For instance, a coin flip has two possible outcomes: heads or tails. The probability that a flipped coin will land heads is 50% (one outcome out of the two); the same goes for tails.
Probability and Cards
When dealing with a deck of cards the number of possible outcomes is clearly much greater than the coin example. Each poker deck has fifty-two cards, each designated by one of four suits (clubs, diamonds, hearts and spades) and one of thirteen ranks (the numbers two through ten, Jack, Queen, King, and Ace). Therefore, the odds of getting any Ace as your first card are 1 in 13 (7.7%), while the odds of getting any spade as your first card are 1 in 4 (25%).
Unlike coins, cards are said to have “memory”: every card dealt changes the makeup of the deck. For example, if you receive an Ace as your first card, only three other Aces are left among the remaining fifty-one cards. Therefore, the odds of receiving another Ace are 3 in 51 (5.9%), much less than the odds were before you received the first Ace.
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Pre-flop Probabilities: Pocket Pairs
In order to find the odds of getting dealt a pair of Aces, we multiply the probabilities of receiving each card:
(4/52) x (3/51) = (12/2652) = (1/221) ≈ 0.45%.
To put this in perspective, if you’re playing poker at your local casino and are dealt 30 hands per hour, you can expect to receive pocket Aces an average of once every 7.5 hours.
The odds of receiving any of the thirteen possible pocket pairs (twos up to Aces) is:
(13/221) = (1/17) ≈ 5.9%.
What Are The Odds Of Flopping 4 Of A Kind In Texas Holdem Rules
In contrast, you can expect to receive any pocket pair once every 35 minutes on average.
Pre-Flop Probabilities: Hand vs. Hand
Players don’t play poker in a vacuum; each player’s hand must measure up against his opponent’s, especially if a player goes all-in before the flop.
Here are some sample probabilities for most pre-flop situations:
Post-Flop Probabilities: Improving Your Hand
Now let’s look at the chances of certain events occurring when playing certain starting hands. The following table lists some interesting and valuable hold’em math:
Many beginners to poker overvalue certain starting hands, such as suited cards. As you can see, suited cards don’t make flushes very often. Likewise, pairs only make a set on the flop 12% of the time, which is why small pairs are not always profitable.
We have created a poker math and probability PDF chart (link opens in a new window) which lists a variety of probabilities and odds for many of the common events in Texas hold ‘em. This chart includes the two tables above in addition to various starting hand probabilities and common pre-flop match-ups. You’ll need to have Adobe Acrobat installed to be able to view the chart, but this is freely installed on most computers by default. We recommend you print the chart and use it as a source of reference.
Odds and Outs
If you do see a flop, you will also need to know what the odds are of either you or your opponent improving a hand. In poker terminology, an “out” is any card that will improve a player’s hand after the flop.
One common occurrence is when a player holds two suited cards and two cards of the same suit appear on the flop. The player has four cards to a flush and needs one of the remaining nine cards of that suit to complete the hand. In the case of a “four-flush”, the player has nine “outs” to make his flush.
A useful shortcut to calculating the odds of completing a hand from a number of outs is the “rule of four and two”. The player counts the number of cards that will improve his hand, and then multiplies that number by four to calculate his probability of catching that card on either the turn or the river. If the player misses his draw on the turn, he multiplies his outs by two to find his probability of filling his hand on the river.
In the example of the four-flush, the player’s probability of filling the flush is approximately 36% after the flop (9 outs x 4) and 18% after the turn (9 outs x 2).
Another important concept in calculating odds and probabilities is pot odds. Pot odds are the proportion of the next bet in relation to the size of the pot.
For instance, if the pot is $90 and the player must call a $10 bet to continue playing the hand, he is getting 9 to 1 (90 to 10) pot odds. If he calls, the new pot is now $100 and his $10 call makes up 10% of the new pot.
Experienced players compare the pot odds to the odds of improving their hand. If the pot odds are higher than the odds of improving the hand, the expert player will call the bet; if not, the player will fold. This calculation ties into the concept of expected value, which we will explore in a later lesson.
A “bad beat” happens when a player completes a hand that started out with a very low probability of success. Experts in probability understand the idea that, just because an event is highly unlikely, the low likelihood does not make it completely impossible.
A measure of a player’s experience and maturity is how he handles bad beats. In fact, many experienced poker players subscribe to the idea that bad beats are the reason that many inferior players stay in the game. Bad poker players often mistake their good fortune for skill and continue to make the same mistakes, which the more capable players use against them.
What Are The Odds Of Flopping 4 Of A Kind In Texas Holdem Tournament
Decisions, Not Results
One of the most important reasons that novice players should understand how probability functions at the poker table is so that they can make the best decisions during a hand. While fluctuations in probability (luck) will happen from hand to hand, the best poker players understand that skill, discipline and patience are the keys to success at the tables.
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A big part of strong decision making is understanding how often you should be betting, raising, and applying pressure.
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This 7+ hour course gives you applicable rules for continuation betting, barreling, raising, and easy ratios so that you ALWAYS have the right number of bluffing combos. Take the guesswork out of your strategy, and begin playing like the top-1%.
A strong knowledge of poker math and probabilities will help you adjust your strategies and tactics during the game, as well as giving you reasonable expectations of potential outcomes and the emotional stability to keep playing intelligent, aggressive poker.
Remember that the foundation upon which to build an imposing knowledge of hold’em starts and ends with the math. I’ll end this lesson by simply saying…. the math is essential.
By Gerald Hanks
Gerald Hanks is from Houston Texas, and has been playing poker since 2002. He has played cash games and no-limit hold’em tournaments at live venues all over the United States.